# Uncertainties

Uncertainties
Uncertainties are factors over which the utility has little or no foreknowledge, and include load growth, fuel prices, or regulatory changes. Uncertainties are modeled in a probabilistic manner. However, in the Detailed Workbook, you may find it is more convenient to treat uncertainties as "unknown but bounded" variables without assuming a probabilistic structure. A specified uncertainty is a specific value taken on by an uncertainty factor (e.g. 3 percent per year for load growth). A future uncertainty is a combination of specified uncertainties (e.g. 3 percent per year load growth, 1 percent per year real coal and oil price escalation, and 2.5 percent increase in housing starts).

Energy terms . 2014.

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